USD CPI this afternoon at 1.30pm therefore we wouldn't look for any long term positioning upon this announcement. As it sits right now GBP could find a base here given the weekly levels, however much will depend on the data print to confirm.
GBP Futures (6b, Sep)
Weekly TPO - we have found support at the weekly TPO this morning as the UK GDP causes a sharp sell off. We may see some buying pressure but believe it will be short lived until the market has more clarity regarding US CPI this afternoon.
Daily TPO - Just filling the initial balance this morning has caused some buying pressure. However it would appear to early to take longs just yet.
AM TPO - really no interesting levels at all to be trading from. It would appear any positioning on GBP this morning would come with high risk and little structure of TPO support.
GBPUSD 4HR candlestick chart - given the longer term downtrend, there is no reason the market cant come lower still before finding some longer term support. The weekly POC is the only level we have supporting price however if CPI is favourable on the dollar today, this will soon snap. High risk trading today as market intentions are unclear.
EURO Futures (6E, Sep)
Daily TPO - The probability of a sell off remains high as we pull back towards VWAP.
AM TPO - we have nothing more than structure points to utilise here in terms of short positions, but the bias remains to the downside to clear poor lows from the previous day.
EURUSD Candlestick chart - Trading towards the Asian lows already we would consider this a high risk trade. Holding right now at VWAP, we are seeing a delta flip bearish as we write this given merit to this position. However as mentioned it would be considered low probability given the lack of convincing data.
All in all a difficult morning to build a bias, unsurprising given the CPI data due in a few hours. There is no reason USD crosses cant trade much lower therefore it would be a question of sell the rallies around key TPO levels with FP confirmation.
Trade Safe.
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