Since the sharp covid panic sell off in March 2020, AUD/USD has been on an incredibly strong bull run with very little weekly pullback, nothing more than a short consolidation phase pre US election. At the minute the pair is up over 2400pips in the last 12 months with another 950 of those pips coming after the election on the back of US dollar weakness. 

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The uptrend at the minute is so strong, it looks more than likely that we will continue on into monthly resistance at $0.8000/AUD. Given the overextension in the AUD against several currencies, and coupled with dollar weakness, the market is likely due a pullback before possibly going higher once again. 0.8000 would provide a key area of interest to be catching any sort of shorts in the short term at least.

 

From a fundamental standpoint, we have already heard Fed chair Powell testify and remain consistent with expectations as the speed of economic recovery is largely dependant on suppressing the virus. Powell showed little concern over inflationary pressures at the minute, although the RBA and ECB have expressed concerns over rising yields and strong currencies. Strength we are seeing in the AUD appears to be a commodity play with the likes of Copper up over 22% on the year alone, albeit assisted nicely by USD weakness. With all this in mind, the fundamental outlook plays into the technicals and confirms a long bias into weekly resistance and as such we would only consider longs for the time being.